Saturday 4 September 2021

The "backward bending labour supply curve"

From an editorial in The Telegraph which, unsually, makes some good points:

Jeremy Hunt, Britain’s longest-serving health secretary, spent years fretting over health budgets and knows better than most how easily the NHS can swallow up extra funds without patients seeing a jot of difference if the money is badly targeted.

“The one thing the Government must do before it spends any of the money is make sure there is capacity in the NHS for that money to be used for what you want it to achieve. If you allocate £5 billion for extra staff, for example, but those extra staff don’t yet exist, that money will just vanish."

... Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, allocated £20 billion of emergency funding to the NHS to cover the cost of Covid-19, of which £15 billion was actually spent. But according to the Nuffield Trust, only £2.7 billion of that was spent on staffing costs. Given that 60 to 70 per cent of hospital’s budgets are spent on staffing, questions are being asked about where the rest of the money went.


We already knew or could have guessed most of this, that's just to set the scene. Here's the interesting bit:

Another of the traps which Mr Blair fell into was in allowing spending increases to be swallowed up by pay rises. While doctors unquestionably deserve high salaries [that's their opinion], the brutal truth is that bumping up GPs’ pay packets does not translate to better patient care.

Almost nine in 10 salaried GPs work less than full time, and there is a danger (accepted in private by those in the health sector) that higher pay will make it financially viable for even more of them to cut their hours without being any worse off. Nor does extra pay across the board incentivise GPs to work in the most deprived communities, which often have the worst access to healthcare, translating into lower life expectancy.


This is an example of the 'backward bending labour curve'. From Lumen Learning, (scroll down to the section on Labour Supply):

To see how changes in wages affect the supply of labor, suppose wages rise. This increases the cost of leisure and causes the supply of labor to rise – this is the substitution effect, which states that as the relative price of one good increases, consumption of that good will decrease. However, there is also an income effect – an increased wage means higher income, and since leisure is a normal good, the quantity of leisure demanded will go up.

In general, at low wage levels the substitution effect dominates the income effect and higher wages cause an increase in the supply of labor.

At high incomes, however, the negative income effect could offset the positive substitution effect and higher wage levels could actually cause labor to decrease. A worker making $800/hour who receives a raise to $1200/hour may not have much use for the extra money and may choose to work less while maintaining the same standard of living, for example. This creates a supply curve that bends backwards, initially increasing with the wage rate but later decreasing.


I'm happy to say that this applies to me. Once I'd finished paying rent fees to private schools, I dropped to a four days a week and started paying in the max. to my pension fund, but I still have more disposable income than when they were at school (and enough to cover my modest lifestyle). That's largely an effect of our insane tax system, but it's nice to be on the winning side of it for once.

5 comments:

Lola said...

Couple of vignettes.
Had a prospect come to me for mortgage work in the late 90's. He'd the BMA negotiator when Blair's junta was doing their 'wasting money on the NHS' thing. Anywho, he told me that the DoH 'negotiators' walked in and made an offer. He asked if the BMA side could have a little time to work through the offer in private. 'Yup' sayethe DoH. When alone he said 'just bite their arms off. Now. You will never ever get a better offer'. It was stupid generous.

My GP - whom I knew quite well - told me that because of his pay and the pension 'reforms' (the lifetime allowance cap) he was now paying so much tax is was not worth working and he was going to retire, which he did in 2020.

Overall Blair and his crew screwed up so much of the UK it's going to take decades to sort out the mess - if ever.

Bayard said...

AFAICS, it's not just the NHS. When a private company makes a big wodge of money, like landing a really lucrative contract, it all goes to the senior staff first. Going back to my last post, Up the Organisation is full of warnings against the tendency of senior management to increase their renumeration to the detriment of everyone else.

mombers said...

Problem with health care labour is it is very much an international market. Most countries are falling over each other to attract and retain talent. So if you offer more, sure some will work less, but if you don't offer internationally competitive rates, you'll lose staff to overseas, and have to loot the third world's doctors and nurses :-(

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, they were spending more to get less. That is a truly a waste of money.

B, true.

M, ah, but is it that simple?

Rich country needs 100,000 GPs and pays them £100k each.
Poorer country also needs 100,000 GPs, can only pay £50k each.

Some GPs will migrate from poorer to rich country, but what if between them, the two countries have trained up 200,000 GPs? The ones not working in rich country will just get jobs in poorer country.

Like footballer players not in the Premier League settle for lower wages in a lower league. There's no shortage of footballers, despite them not all earning zillions.

(OK, there is leakage when poorer countries pay to train up GPs, only to see some go abroad, but that's the way it works and the NHS exploits this to the hilt).

Tim Almond said...

mombers,

"Problem with health care labour is it is very much an international market. Most countries are falling over each other to attract and retain talent. So if you offer more, sure some will work less, but if you don't offer internationally competitive rates, you'll lose staff to overseas, and have to loot the third world's doctors and nurses :-("

GP is the most overrated, overpaid job in this country. I reckon I could sit with a GP for a month and then bluff it. They can solve about a dozen routine things (like infections, colds, the pill) and everything else they refer. Weird lump on your bollocks? They can't tell you if it's bad or good, just that it's not right and refer you, so what are they adding?

The only reason I go to a GP is because I have to. If Boots would say, give me antibiotics for an infection, I wouldn't bother.