Rewarding nuclear peace

The Economist writes:

Nuclear-armed states may begin to believe that they can gain by copying Vladimir Putin’s tactics. One day, someone somewhere will surely turn their threat into reality... Source

Consider the incentives on offer to those in power today: if they possess nuclear weapons they can initiate a conflict knowing that they can dictate its course by threatening, implicitly or otherwise, to deploy them. If the target of their aggression doesn't possess nuclear weapons or if the target cares more about its civilian population than the aggressor, then at some point in the future, the reality feared by the Economist will come to pass. It might be today, it might be in a few years, but the number of countries with nuclear weapons continues to proliferate and we should not have to rely on those in power to continue to exercise restraint at all times. The taboo against threatening use of nuclear weapons has been broken. It now appears inevitable that, before long, the taboo against their use will also be broken. 

My previous post highlighted the continuing rise in the level of greenhouse gas emissions, despite the many agreements, protocols, treaties and hard-working organisations devoted to reducing their level: 

  

 

Fig.1 Atmospheric carbon dioxide level/Probability of nuclear conflict (?)

 

It seems that the probability of a nuclear strike of some sort is on a similar upward trajectory. What is to be done? 

My suggestion is that we we offer incentives for people to achieve that which we want to achieve: sustained nuclear peace whoever they are and however they do so. If people think that continuing along our present pathway isn't working, they should have incentives to research into and experiment with different approaches, refining those that appear most promising, and terminating those that don't work. This could be done with Nuclear Peace Bonds, an application of the Social Policy Bond concept. As with climate change, the aim is to encourage diverse, adaptive approaches to solving a complex, long-term problem that poses a great risk to large numbers of people and the environment.