I fully admit that 90 percent of the Durham Bulls games I attended while living in North Carolina were really just an excuse to drink beer outside. As such, it didn’t really matter to me when I arrived at the game or when I left, as long as I had enough time to have a few beers inside, talk to friends, and there was something mildly entertaining happening on the field.
Now that I live in San Francisco, I’m a bit more serious about the game part of the experience. I’m definitely there to see the Giants play and care how they do (although the beer part of the equation is still an important one). However, I can’t say that I always arrive exactly on time and stay glued to the game for the full length of the gameplay. And I’m definitely not alone.
The average Major League baseball game lasts around three hours, which unless it’s a really exciting game, is longer than most of us can pay attention. And it’s one of the few major sporting events where it’s socially acceptable to come and go as you please. But when it comes to going, you don’t want to miss out on any of the action.
Five Thirty Eight recently analyzed baseball games, specifically the 2010-2015 regular season inning-by-inning to determine when you should leave, and when you should stay in a game specifically taking into account your chances of missing out on a win for your home team if you bounce early.
On a basic level, it boils down to this:
Leave after the 1st inning if the leader is up by 6 runs.
Leave after the 2nd inning if the leader is up by 6 runs.
Leave after the 3rd inning if the leader is up by 5 runs.
Leave after the 4th inning if the leader is up by 5 runs.
Leave after the 5th inning if the leader is up by 4 runs.
Leave after the 6th inning if the leader is up by 4 runs.
Leave after the 7th inning if the leader is up by 3 runs.
Leave after the 8th inning if the leader is up by 2 runs.
They’re not perfect odds, but they will give you a good idea of whether or not you’re likely to miss something if you leave early. If you like those, Five Thirty Eight also has a few graphs on its site looking at how much late-inning drama you would have missing if you left games in 2016 based on that chart.
And if you’re having fun, there’s absolutely no reason to leave until the end of the 9th inning. But if you’re sitting in your seats contemplating “should I stay or should I go?” it can be a good guide to consider.