Sunday, May 05, 2019

Some Charts That Should Worry Donald Trump About 2020




Donald Trump has a problem with women voters. And it is a problem that has remained consistent since he took office. It's also a problem that will limit him to one term if he can't change it before the 2020 election.

The top two charts use information provided by the Pew Research Center. They relate that the electorate is 53% women and 47% men. That would be bad enough for Trump, but as the second chart shows, women voted in a larger percentage than men did in 2018 (just as in past elections) -- and they are likely to do that again in 2020.

The bottom chart shows that 53% of women say they will definitely vote for someone other than Trump in 2020, while only 23% say they will definitely vote for him. The percentage among men is much closer (42% against and 32% for).

If there is a large turnout in 2020 (and I believe it will be massive), then women are going to kick Trump out of the White House.

The bottom chart reflects the results of the latest Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on April 28th and 29th of a national sample of 1,995 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

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