FiveThirtyEight

Blog URL:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Blog Tags:politics, analysis, statistics, predictions, forecast, government, elections

In-depth analysis and statistical models on political happenings



Latest Blog Posts



Since he won his first Grand Slam title in 2005, Rafael Nadal has accomplished everything tennis has to offer. The 33-year-old has dominated the French Open, winning 12 times. He’s won Wimbledon twice and the U.S. Open four times. He helped Spain t...

What’s gotten into Bernie Sanders? On Sunday, my colleague Geoffrey Skelley noted that, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast of the Democratic presidential primary, the Vermont senator had shot up to a 1 in 4 chance (26 percent) of winning a m...

Today is the third and probably final day of presentations by President Trump’s defense in the U.S. Senate impeachment trial. The first two days of legal arguments by Trump’s team — on Saturday and Monday — haven’t offered anything...

Two months ago, we set out to track how Americans are responding to President Trump’s impeachment in real time. And what we’ve found in our polling with Ipsos, where we interview the same group of respondents every few weeks using Ipsos’s Knowl...

If you’ve been following endorsements of the 2020 Democratic primary field, the biggest thing that stands out is the lack of them, as my colleague Geoffrey Skelley wrote recently. Joe Biden has far more endorsement points than any other candidate,...

We’re now less than a week away from the Iowa caucuses, and the contest there can best be described as a four-way race. As of Tuesday morning, former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg an...

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will face off Sunday in Super Bowl LIV in Miami. Our model has the 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs, with a 37 percent chance of pulling off a win. The model is even less enthusiastic about San Francisco qua...