FiveThirtyEight

Blog URL:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Blog Tags:politics, analysis, statistics, predictions, forecast, government, elections

In-depth analysis and statistical models on political happenings



Latest Blog Posts



Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddle...

How do you convey information about the coronavirus in a way that will compel people to change their behavior? As COVID-19 cases rise in Florida, Texas and Arizona, we look at how psychologists recommend we talk about public health. Don’t want to m...

When last we left the 2019-20 NBA season, the Los Angeles Lakers were championship favorites — with the rival L.A. Clippers and the Milwaukee Bucks not too far behind — as teams prepped for the final 17 or so games in the regular season.

These days, reading the monthly jobs report can feel like opening a time capsule. According to the data for June, which was released today, the recovery from the COVID-19 recession was still chugging along as of the middle of last month, when the two...

In general, the Republican Party gets between 5 and 10 percent of the Black vote and less than a third of the Hispanic vote nationally. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Clare Malone discusses the series of choices the GOP...

Before every fashion retailer was selling their own cloth face covering, before a piece of fabric over your nose and mouth became a personal political statement, and before Goldman Sachs was saying a national face mask mandate is as good as a lockdow...

New York’s Jamaal Bowman and Kentucky’s Charles Booker, two Black men running on very liberal policy platforms, defeated and nearly defeated (respectively) white Democrats in primaries last week, giving a boost to the party’s insurgent wing. Ne...