FiveThirtyEight

Blog URL:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Blog Tags:politics, analysis, statistics, predictions, forecast, government, elections

In-depth analysis and statistical models on political happenings



Latest Blog Posts



Well, folks, this is getting tight. Donald Trump is in his strongest-ever position in FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which gives him a 46 percent chance of winning the election. Trump’s chances are about the same, 45 percent, according to...

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the telling numbers tucked inside the news. Tonight is debate night, so be sure to check the site this evening for a FiveThirtyEight live blog. I’ll be on ABC News’s digital stream of...

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are about to face off in one of the most anticipated debates in American political history. Clinton generally got good reviews as a debater in her two runs for the presidency. Trump’s debate performances during the...

The FiveThirtyEight Elections podcast crew previews the first 2016 presidential debate. In a lightning round of questions, the team looks at what’s on the line for both candidates. And there’s much more FiveThirtyEight debate coverage in...

11:11 PM Good Night. Good Morning. 12600 Micah Cohen That’s a wrap, people. If you missed the debate, though, just start at the beginning of this live blog and scroll up — you can experience all the debate’s majesty chronologically.

The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are both 3-0 to start the year, two of just five undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. But given the way that both teams have played so far, there are a lot of questions about how sustainable their success...

It’s official: Murder rose across the U.S. last year at the fastest pace since 1990, according to data released by the FBI on Monday. There were an estimated 15,696 murders in 2015, 1,532 more than in 2014 and the most recorded in a calendar year s...