FiveThirtyEight

Blog URL:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Blog Tags:politics, analysis, statistics, predictions, forecast, government, elections

In-depth analysis and statistical models on political happenings



Latest Blog Posts



Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): With all eyes on 2020, much of the media attention has focused on the growing Democratic field, but what ab...

The past few months have seen a parade of newly launched presidential campaigns, each hoping to march through the primaries and on to the White House. The streets have gotten rather crowded — the Democratic field has ballooned to more than a do...

True to the reputation of an overlooked mid-major, when the Wofford Terriers were headed for the Southern Conference tournament earlier this month, they refused to take anything for granted. As dominant as the Terriers were, the persistent refrain fr...

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the numbers tucked inside the news. 19 pages Special counsel Robert Mueller was investigating President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen well before previously though — at least ni...

No one wants to be the person who sends four No. 1 seeds into their bracket’s Final Four. If you need help making some creative picks, Neil Paine offers suggestions for sleepers in the 2019 men’s NCAA Tournament in the video above. Read more: Our...

The huge, Day 1 fundraising totals released by Sen. Bernie Sanders’s campaign last month ($5.9 million) and then former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign last week ($6.1 million) are great signs for both candidates. The numbers suggest both have pa...

One of the strongest selling points of Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s presidential campaign is her electability. That can be a problematic term, but in this case, we’re basing the idea on more than just subjective qualities like “likability”: Klobuchar...