FiveThirtyEight

Blog URL:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Blog Tags:politics, analysis, statistics, predictions, forecast, government, elections

In-depth analysis and statistical models on political happenings



Latest Blog Posts



College football has lacked drama in recent years, at least in the national-championship picture. Clemson has won five straight titles in the ACC. Ohio State has won three straight in the Big Ten. Oklahoma is a five-time reigning champion in the Big...

The NFL is a league of matchups, and no matchup is more crucial to wins and losses than the battle between a quarterback and the pass defense. That’s important for more than just the coaches calling X’s and O’s: Each week, the media...

Think back to last summer, when the teams that had just played for an NBA title were hit with one bombshell move after another in free agency. The first bolt of lightning struck instantly, when two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant said he’d be leav...

Donald Trump was once again underestimated by the polls. On the one hand, this polling error is fairly normal. We’re not talking about huge polling misses, and the polls still “called” the election correctly: Joe Biden won. But that said, it do...

It’s the strangest women’s college basketball season anyone can remember. Teams simply don’t know who they’ll be playing. Don’t believe me? Here’s Jeff Walz, Louisville head coach, on Twitter on Monday, looking for someone to play … on...

We start with college basketball’s plan to deal with the United States’ worst surge in the coronavirus pandemic since it began in March. That plan is, mostly, to muddle through, adapting to two-week halts when teams test positive and rolling with...

In their Howard University dorms in the early 1990s, Milan Brown and his classmates used to discuss how their school and other historically Black colleges and universities could become basketball powerhouses. “You’d be surprised at how many talks...